How it works

Oracle7 rates every match in the leagues it covers with statistical models of goals (Dixon-Coles and related models), fitted on years of results. Where bookmakers price a match, their combined chance, with their margin removed, is used: in our own tests the market was the better forecaster, so we follow it rather than pretend otherwise.

The pick

For each match the pick is the most likely market priced between 1.15 and 1.50 that none of our checks rule out (for example a team on a tiring run of matches). It shows the chance, the fair price (the price that exactly matches the chance) and the best price we found.

The tickets

Each morning three accumulators are built from the day's most likely priced picks, one leg per match: about 2x, 5x and 10x. Each leg must pay enough that the size is reached in a few legs, because every extra leg adds the bookmaker's margin again.

The record

Every pick and ticket is published before kick-off and never edited. After the match it is graded and added to the results, including the losses. Over time the hit rate should match the chances we publish; the results page shows both side by side.

What this is not

No prediction is certain, and no system beats the bookmakers every week. Treat the picks as information, not as a promise, and read our responsible gambling page.