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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
Our pick
Our pick for this match is published about 48 hours before kick-off.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Ajax1.85
AZ Alkmaar1.33
Total 3.18 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 49% | 2.02 | – |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | – |
| Away win | 27% | 3.66 | – |
| Home or draw | 73% | 1.38 | – |
| Draw or away | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Home or away | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.21 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 1.62 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 2.54 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38% | 2.61 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61% | 1.65 | – |
| Both teams score | 62% | 1.61 | – |
| Not both teams score | 38% | 2.65 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.