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First League · Bulgaria
Arda vs Levski Sofia
Our pick
82% chanceX2 (Draw/Away)
Chance
82%
Fair price
1.22
Best price found
1.15
- Bookmakers' combined chance, margin removed: 82% (4 bookmakers).
- Our models: 77% to 78%.
- Expected goals: 2.2 (Arda 0.8, Levski Sofia 1.4).
- Fair price: 1.22. Best price found: 1.15.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Arda0.84
Levski Sofia1.41
Total 2.25 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 18% | 5.71 | 4.94 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | 3.48 |
| Away win | 57% | 1.76 | 1.66 |
| Home or draw | 45% | 2.22 | 2.07 |
| Draw or away | 82% | 1.22 | 1.15 |
| Home or away | 73% | 1.37 | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.46 | 1.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.29 | 2.12 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 4.66 | 3.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.77 | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 2.23 | 2.05 |
| Not both teams score | 55% | 1.81 | 1.69 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.