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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Arouca vs Nacional
Our pick
Our pick for this match is published about 48 hours before kick-off.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Arouca1.63
Nacional1.18
Total 2.82 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 48% | 2.08 | – |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | – |
| Away win | 28% | 3.60 | – |
| Home or draw | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Draw or away | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Home or away | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.87 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 3.21 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.15 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | – |
| Both teams score | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Not both teams score | 44% | 2.26 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.