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Campeonato de Portugal · Portugal
Associação Naval 1893 vs Mortágua
Full time: 0-2
Our pick
WonHT Under 1.5
Chance
80%
Fair price
1.25
Take at least
1.31
- Our models: 80%.
- Expected goals: 1.8 (Associação Naval 1893 1.0, Mortágua 0.8).
- Fair price: 1.25. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.31 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Associação Naval 18931.02
Mortágua0.83
Total 1.85 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 48% | 2.08 | 1.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | 3.20 |
| Away win | 24% | 4.13 | 3.60 |
| Home or draw | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Draw or away | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Home or away | 68% | 1.47 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 3.54 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 8.57 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 88% | 1.13 | – |
| Both teams score | 36% | 2.79 | – |
| Not both teams score | 64% | 1.56 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.