← All predictions
Primera A · Colombia
Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín
Full time: 2-1
Our pick
WonOver 1.5
Chance
79%
Fair price
1.27
Best price found
1.21
- Bookmakers' combined chance, margin removed: 79% (4 bookmakers).
- Our models: 72% to 74%.
- Expected goals: 2.6 (Atlético Nacional 1.8, Independiente Medellín 0.8).
- Fair price: 1.27. Best price found: 1.21.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Atlético Nacional1.79
Independiente Medellín0.82
Total 2.60 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 53% | 1.87 | 1.75 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | 3.63 |
| Away win | 22% | 4.54 | 4.02 |
| Home or draw | 77% | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Draw or away | 47% | 2.11 | 1.95 |
| Home or away | 75% | 1.33 | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 | 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 3.17 | 2.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 | 2.05 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 1.79 | 1.67 |
| Not both teams score | 44% | 2.27 | 2.08 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.