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Campeonato de Portugal · Portugal
Benfica Castelo Branco vs O Elvas CAD
Full time: 1-3
Our pick
WonHome Over 0.5
Chance
76%
Fair price
1.31
Take at least
1.38
- Our models: 76%.
- Expected goals: 2.6 (Benfica Castelo Branco 1.4, O Elvas CAD 1.1).
- Fair price: 1.31. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.38 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Benfica Castelo Branco1.44
O Elvas CAD1.15
Total 2.59 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 37% | 2.71 | 2.45 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | 3.20 |
| Away win | 35% | 2.82 | 2.55 |
| Home or draw | 70% | 1.43 | – |
| Draw or away | 56% | 1.78 | – |
| Home or away | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.83 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | – |
| Both teams score | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Not both teams score | 48% | 2.08 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.