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Campeonato de Portugal · Portugal
CDC Montalegre vs AD Ponte da Barca
Full time: 0-1
Our pick
LostHome Over 0.5
Chance
80%
Fair price
1.25
Take at least
1.32
- Our models: 80%.
- Expected goals: 2.6 (CDC Montalegre 1.6, AD Ponte da Barca 1.0).
- Fair price: 1.25. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.32 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
CDC Montalegre1.60
AD Ponte da Barca1.01
Total 2.61 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 54% | 1.87 | 1.73 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Away win | 22% | 4.65 | 4.00 |
| Home or draw | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Draw or away | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Home or away | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 3.77 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Both teams score | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Not both teams score | 49% | 2.02 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.