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First League · Bulgaria
Cherno More vs Septemvri Sofia
Our pick
81% chance1X (Home/Draw)
Chance
81%
Fair price
1.23
Best price found
1.15
- Bookmakers' combined chance, margin removed: 81% (4 bookmakers).
- Our models: 82% to 83%.
- Expected goals: 2.4 (Cherno More 1.6, Septemvri Sofia 0.8).
- Fair price: 1.23. Best price found: 1.15.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Cherno More1.60
Septemvri Sofia0.75
Total 2.35 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 56% | 1.78 | 1.67 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | 3.60 |
| Away win | 19% | 5.27 | 4.59 |
| Home or draw | 81% | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| Draw or away | 44% | 2.28 | 2.13 |
| Home or away | 75% | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.27 | 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 4.45 | 3.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.79 | 1.68 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 2.15 | 1.97 |
| Not both teams score | 53% | 1.87 | 1.74 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.