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Campeonato de Portugal · Portugal
FC Alverca B vs AD Nogueirense
Full time: 3-0
Our pick
WonUnder 3.5
Chance
81%
Fair price
1.24
Take at least
1.30
- Our models: 81%.
- Expected goals: 2.3 (FC Alverca B 1.3, AD Nogueirense 0.9).
- Fair price: 1.24. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.30 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
FC Alverca B1.30
AD Nogueirense0.95
Total 2.25 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 41% | 2.42 | 2.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | 3.25 |
| Away win | 32% | 3.15 | 2.80 |
| Home or draw | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Draw or away | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Home or away | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.56 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 5.24 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Both teams score | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Not both teams score | 56% | 1.80 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.