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Championship · England
Millwall vs Derby
Our pick
Our pick for this match is published about 48 hours before kick-off.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Millwall1.46
Derby1.03
Total 2.50 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | – |
| Away win | 27% | 3.75 | – |
| Home or draw | 73% | 1.36 | – |
| Draw or away | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Home or away | 74% | 1.36 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.20 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.14 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Both teams score | 50% | 2.02 | – |
| Not both teams score | 50% | 1.98 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.