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Liga 3 · Portugal
Os Belenenses vs Sporting Covilhã
Full time: 1-1
Our pick
WonHT 1X (Home/Draw)
Chance
85%
Fair price
1.17
Take at least
1.23
- Our models: 85% to 86%.
- Expected goals: 2.5 (Os Belenenses 1.8, Sporting Covilhã 0.8).
- Fair price: 1.17. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.23 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Os Belenenses1.77
Sporting Covilhã0.76
Total 2.53 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 62% | 1.62 | – |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | – |
| Away win | 16% | 6.41 | – |
| Home or draw | 84% | 1.18 | – |
| Draw or away | 38% | 2.62 | – |
| Home or away | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 4.02 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Both teams score | 45% | 2.22 | 2.02 |
| Not both teams score | 55% | 1.82 | 1.69 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.