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National League North / South · England
Oxford City vs Merthyr Town
Our pick
84% chanceHT Under 2.5
Chance
84%
Fair price
1.19
Take at least
1.25
- Our models: 84%.
- Expected goals: 3.1 (Oxford City 1.6, Merthyr Town 1.5).
- Fair price: 1.19. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.25 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Oxford City1.59
Merthyr Town1.46
Total 3.05 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 41% | 2.46 | – |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | – |
| Away win | 35% | 2.84 | – |
| Home or draw | 65% | 1.54 | – |
| Draw or away | 59% | 1.68 | – |
| Home or away | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.70 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 2.74 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 | – |
| Both teams score | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Not both teams score | 39% | 2.58 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.