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Bundesliga · Germany
SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München
Full time: 1-3
Our pick
Won12 (Home/Away)
Chance
83%
Fair price
1.20
Best price found
1.13
- Bookmakers' combined chance, margin removed: 83% (5 bookmakers).
- Our models: 81% to 82%.
- Expected goals: 3.7 (SC Freiburg 1.2, FC Bayern München 2.4).
- Fair price: 1.20. Best price found: 1.13.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
SC Freiburg1.24
FC Bayern München2.45
Total 3.69 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 14% | 7.03 | 6.80 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.94 | 5.80 |
| Away win | 69% | 1.45 | 1.46 |
| Home or draw | 31% | 3.20 | 3.01 |
| Draw or away | 85% | 1.17 | 1.10 |
| Home or away | 83% | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 | 1.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.71 | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22% | 4.51 | 3.90 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.40 | 2.25 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| Not both teams score | 32% | 3.11 | 2.80 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.