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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
Full time: 1-2
Our pick
Won12 (Home/Away)
Chance
82%
Fair price
1.22
Best price found
1.15
- Bookmakers' combined chance, margin removed: 82% (5 bookmakers).
- Our models: 77% to 78%.
- Expected goals: 3.1 (Sparta Rotterdam 1.3, Ajax 1.9).
- Fair price: 1.22. Best price found: 1.15.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Sparta Rotterdam1.28
Ajax1.85
Total 3.13 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 15% | 6.50 | 5.78 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.53 | 4.99 |
| Away win | 67% | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| Home or draw | 35% | 2.86 | 2.68 |
| Draw or away | 83% | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| Home or away | 82% | 1.22 | 1.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | 1.12 | 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 | 1.34 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.50 | 3.16 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 | 1.91 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 1.57 | 1.48 |
| Not both teams score | 36% | 2.77 | 2.50 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.