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Liga 3 · Portugal
UD Santarém vs GD Vitória Sernache
Full time: 2-1
Our pick
WonUnder 3.5
Chance
83%
Fair price
1.20
Take at least
1.26
- Our models: 83%.
- Expected goals: 2.1 (UD Santarém 1.3, GD Vitória Sernache 0.8).
- Fair price: 1.20. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.26 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
UD Santarém1.29
GD Vitória Sernache0.84
Total 2.12 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 50% | 2.02 | 1.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | 3.32 |
| Away win | 23% | 4.32 | 3.87 |
| Home or draw | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Draw or away | 53% | 1.89 | – |
| Home or away | 72% | 1.40 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | 1.60 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.80 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 6.04 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.55 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Both teams score | 49% | 2.05 | 1.88 |
| Not both teams score | 51% | 1.95 | 1.80 |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.