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National League · England
Worthing vs Southend
Our pick
85% chanceOver 1.5
Chance
85%
Fair price
1.18
Take at least
1.24
- Our models: 84% to 85%.
- Expected goals: 3.3 (Worthing 1.5, Southend 1.8).
- Fair price: 1.18. No bookmaker price yet: worth taking at 1.24 or more.
Published , before kick-off, and never changed.
Expected goals
Worthing1.51
Southend1.82
Total 3.33 goals expected.
Chances by market
bookmakers' chance with their margin removed where priced, else our models'| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 28% | 3.54 | 3.10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| Away win | 45% | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Home or draw | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Draw or away | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Home or away | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 1.18 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 2.35 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.83 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Both teams score | 65% | 1.53 | – |
| Not both teams score | 35% | 2.89 | – |
A price above the fair price is worth more than the chance says; below it, the bookmaker's margin outweighs it.