Cardiff Metropolitan v PenybontPrediction
Cymru Premier, WalesCardiff, Caerdydd
Analysis & breakdown
Written from the numbers on this page.
Cardiff Metropolitan play Penybont at Cardiff in the Cymru Premier. Our pick is published about 48 hours before kick-off; until then, this is how the numbers see the match.
Chances of the result: Cardiff Metropolitan 29%, draw 25%, Penybont 46%. Expected goals: 2.6 in total (Cardiff Metropolitan 1.1, Penybont 1.5).
In the table, Cardiff Metropolitan are 8th on 22 points and Penybont are 3rd on 30. Recent form, newest first: Cardiff Metropolitan D-L-W-W-D, Penybont W-L-W-W-W.
Oracle Conviction
Pick coming
Published
We choose the pick about 48 hours before kick-off, once bookmakers have priced the match. After that it does not change.
Tale of the tape
| Cardiff Metropolitan | Tale of the tape | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| 1.13 | Expected goals | 1.49 |
| 8th of 16 | League position | 3rd of 16 |
| 22 | Points | 30 |
| DLWWD | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| 7–7 | Goals, last 5 | 13–6 |
| 1 | Meetings won, 3 drawn | 1 |
- 2026-01-13 Penybont 1-1 Cardiff Metropolitan
- 2025-09-23 Cardiff Metropolitan 0-4 Penybont
- 2025-03-14 Penybont 0-0 Cardiff Metropolitan
- 2025-01-24 Cardiff Metropolitan 2-1 Penybont
- 2024-12-31 Penybont 2-2 Cardiff Metropolitan
How the match could go
- Cardiff Metropolitan win
- 29%
- Draw
- 25%
- Penybont win
- 46%
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Goals expected in total | 2.63 |
Chances by market
Bookmakers' chances with their margin taken out where they price the market; our models' chances where they don't. The fair price is 1 divided by the chance.
| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff Metropolitan to win | 29% | 3.42 | – |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | – |
| Penybont to win | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Cardiff Metropolitan or draw | 54% | 1.86 | – |
| Draw or Penybont | 71% | 1.41 | – |
| Either team to win | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 3.71 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Not both teams to score | 48% | 2.08 | – |
Questions about this match
When is the prediction for Cardiff Metropolitan vs Penybont published?
About 48 hours before kick-off, once bookmakers have priced the match. It is fixed from then on.
Who is more likely to win, Cardiff Metropolitan or Penybont?
Cardiff Metropolitan win 29%, draw 25%, Penybont win 46%.
Will both teams score in Cardiff Metropolitan vs Penybont?
We give both teams to score a 52% chance, and not both teams to score 48%.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff Metropolitan vs Penybont?
Expected goals: 2.6 in total (Cardiff Metropolitan 1.1, Penybont 1.5). Over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance.
When and where is Cardiff Metropolitan vs Penybont?
Saturday 31 October at 12:30 UTC, in the Cymru Premier (Wales), at Cardiff, Caerdydd.