Arda v Septemvri SofiaPrediction

First League, Bulgaria2026-11-02 17:30 UTCKardzhali

Analysis & breakdown

Written from the numbers on this page.

Arda play Septemvri Sofia at Kardzhali in the First League. Our pick is published about 48 hours before kick-off; until then, this is how the numbers see the match.

Result chances: Arda 61%, draw 23%, Septemvri Sofia 16%.

In the table, Arda are 6th on 17 points and Septemvri Sofia are 13th on 8.

Recent form, newest first: Arda L-D-L-L-W, Septemvri Sofia L-L-L-L-D.

Expected goals: 2.6 in total (Arda 1.8, Septemvri Sofia 0.8).

Oracle Conviction

Pick coming

Published 2026-10-31 17:30 UTC

We choose the pick about 48 hours before kick-off, once bookmakers have priced the match. After that it does not change.

Arda	Tale of the tape	Septemvri Sofia
1.77	Expected goals	0.78
6th of 14	League position	13th of 14
17	Points	8
LDLLW	Last 5	LLLLD
6–13	Goals, last 5	6–12
3	Meetings won, 1 drawn	1

2026-07-18 Septemvri Sofia 1-1 Arda
2026-03-21 Septemvri Sofia 1-4 Arda
2025-10-20 Arda 0-1 Septemvri Sofia
2025-04-07 Septemvri Sofia 0-4 Arda
2024-10-25 Arda 2-1 Septemvri Sofia

How the match could go

Arda win: 61%
Draw: 23%
Septemvri Sofia win: 16%

Over 2.5 goals	47%
Both teams to score	45%
Goals expected in total	2.55

Chances by market

Bookmakers' chances with their margin taken out where they price the market; our models' chances where they don't. The fair price is 1 divided by the chance.

Market	Chance	Fair price	Best price
Arda to win	61%	1.64	–
Draw	23%	4.28	–
Septemvri Sofia to win	16%	6.36	–
Arda or draw	84%	1.19	–
Draw or Septemvri Sofia	39%	2.56	–
Either team to win	77%	1.30	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.38	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.13	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.94	–
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.88	–
Under 3.5 goals	75%	1.34	–
Both teams to score	45%	2.22	–
Not both teams to score	55%	1.82	–