Cherno More v Botev VratsaPrediction

First League, Bulgaria2026-11-02 15:00 UTCVarna

Analysis & breakdown

Written from the numbers on this page.

Cherno More play Botev Vratsa at Varna in the First League. Our pick is published about 48 hours before kick-off; until then, this is how the numbers see the match.

Chances of the result: Cherno More 52%, draw 28%, Botev Vratsa 20%. Expected goals: 2.1 in total (Cherno More 1.4, Botev Vratsa 0.7).

In the table, Cherno More are 14th on 6 points and Botev Vratsa are 10th on 10. Recent form, newest first: Cherno More L-D-D-L-L, Botev Vratsa D-L-D-D-W.

Oracle Conviction

Pick coming

Published 2026-10-31 15:00 UTC

We choose the pick about 48 hours before kick-off, once bookmakers have priced the match. After that it does not change.

Cherno More	Tale of the tape	Botev Vratsa
1.37	Expected goals	0.73
14th of 14	League position	10th of 14
6	Points	10
LDDLL	Last 5	DLDDW
4–9	Goals, last 5	6–6
2	Meetings won, 2 drawn	1

2026-07-19 Botev Vratsa 1-1 Cherno More
2026-02-20 Cherno More 0-0 Botev Vratsa
2025-08-29 Botev Vratsa 1-0 Cherno More
2024-12-07 Botev Vratsa 2-3 Cherno More
2024-08-12 Cherno More 2-1 Botev Vratsa

How the match could go

Cherno More win: 52%
Draw: 28%
Botev Vratsa win: 20%

Over 2.5 goals	35%
Both teams to score	39%
Goals expected in total	2.10

Chances by market

Bookmakers' chances with their margin taken out where they price the market; our models' chances where they don't. The fair price is 1 divided by the chance.

Market	Chance	Fair price	Best price
Cherno More to win	52%	1.93	–
Draw	28%	3.52	–
Botev Vratsa to win	20%	5.08	–
Cherno More or draw	80%	1.24	–
Draw or Botev Vratsa	48%	2.08	–
Either team to win	72%	1.40	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	1.60	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	2.84	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	6.16	–
Under 2.5 goals	65%	1.54	–
Under 3.5 goals	84%	1.19	–
Both teams to score	39%	2.56	–
Not both teams to score	61%	1.64	–