Benfica v AlvercaPrediction
Primeira Liga, PortugalBenfica, Lisboa
Analysis & breakdown
Written from the numbers on this page.
Benfica play Alverca at Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Our pick is published about 48 hours before kick-off; until then, this is how the numbers see the match.
Result chances: Benfica 78%, draw 14%, Alverca 8%.
In the table, Benfica are 2nd on 19 points and Alverca are 8th on 11.
Recent form, newest first: Benfica W-L-W-W-W, Alverca L-W-W-W-L.
Expected goals: 3.3 in total (Benfica 2.6, Alverca 0.7).
Oracle Conviction
Pick coming
Published
We choose the pick about 48 hours before kick-off, once bookmakers have priced the match. After that it does not change.
Tale of the tape
 Benfica | Tale of the tape |  Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| 2.58 | Expected goals | 0.70 |
| 2nd of 18 | League position | 8th of 18 |
| 19 | Points | 11 |
| WLWWW | Last 5 | LWWWL |
| 13–4 | Goals, last 5 | 9–5 |
| 2 | Meetings won | 0 |
- 2026-02-08 Benfica 2-1 Alverca
- 2025-08-31 Alverca 1-2 Benfica
How the match could go
- Benfica win
- 78%
- Draw
- 14%
- Alverca win
- 8%
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Goals expected in total | 3.28 |
Chances by market
Bookmakers' chances with their margin taken out where they price the market; our models' chances where they don't. The fair price is 1 divided by the chance.
| Market | Chance | Fair price | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica to win | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Draw | 14% | 7.07 | – |
| Alverca to win | 8% | 12.59 | – |
| Benfica or draw | 92% | 1.09 | – |
| Draw or Alverca | 22% | 4.53 | – |
| Either team to win | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 2.41 | – |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.75 | – |
| Under 3.5 goals | 59% | 1.71 | – |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Not both teams to score | 54% | 1.87 | – |
Questions about this match
When is the prediction for Benfica vs Alverca published?
About 48 hours before kick-off, once bookmakers have priced the match. It is fixed from then on.
Who is more likely to win, Benfica or Alverca?
Benfica win 78%, draw 14%, Alverca win 8%.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Alverca?
We give both teams to score a 46% chance, and not both teams to score 54%.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs Alverca?
Expected goals: 3.3 in total (Benfica 2.6, Alverca 0.7). Over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance.
When and where is Benfica vs Alverca?
Monday 2 November at 20:15 UTC, in the Primeira Liga (Portugal), at Benfica, Lisboa.
Casa Pia
Porto
Arouca
Nacional